Outside of the current circles of power in tech and politics, however, prediction markets continue to face questions about insider trading (banned by Polymarket’s rules but difficult to enforce on any anonymity-optimized platform) and the fundamental morality of placing bets on violent conflicts. In March, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes charged Kalshi with running an illegal gambling operation for offering betting contracts on four elections in the state.
And some prediction-market users, like certain sports gamblers, seem unable to accept the reality that they placed the wrong bet. Israeli journalist Emanuel Fabian recently received a round of death threats from Polymarket users demanding that he change a description of an Iranian missile attack to align with their
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