NASA assessed 1-in-276 odds for loss of crew on the first flight of astronauts aboard SpaceX’s Crew Dragon in 2020. For Boeing’s Starliner in 2024, the probability was 1 in 295. You wouldn’t be wrong to question those numbers given the proven performance of Dragon and Starliner.
This chart from NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance describes the agency’s process for conducting probabilistic risk assessments.
Credit: NASA
This chart from NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance describes the agency’s process for conducting probabilistic risk assessments. Credit: NASA
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